Barbara Yaffe's excellent editorial

I don't often agree with Barbara Yaffe, but I think she has done a good job today of pointing out exactly what the dynamics of the Liberal Leadership race are in her Vancouver Sun column today:

Destiny in December narrows to two: Dion or Rae

As Liberal leadership delegates prepare to head to Montreal to pick the chap they hope will become Canada's next prime minister, the contest has narrowed and suspense is heightening.

The next Liberal leader, to be announced Dec. 2, almost surely will be either Stephane Dion or Bob Rae.

Both draw their main strengths neither from superb past political performance nor terrific charisma, but rather from the fact they've managed to preserve their positioning as good compromise candidates.

Neither has done anything through many months of campaigning to actively annoy delegates or their fellow competitors. They've also been careful not to insult past Liberal PMs, who more than deserved a few digs, or pick at the deteriorating party's scabs.

Both Rae, a Rhodes scholar, and Dion, a one-time university professor, are intellectuals and experienced politicos. They've played it cool on party hustings, issuing, in methodical fashion, a host of low-key policies that alienated few and took the party in no seriously divergent or controversial directions.

So now, barring unforeseen events, the duo are being viewed as favoured second choices for the many delegates committed to Michael Ignatieff on the first ballot.

The Etobicoke-Lakeshore Liberal newcomer is forecast to capture the most support on the first ballot, but his numbers will be insufficient to give him an absolute majority.

Ignatieff's Achilles' heel is that has nowhere to grow thereafter. Many delegates will be relieved to vacate his tent, nervous about the inappropriate commentary the lead contender has been giving for months.

As a Liberal newcomer who had been decades out of the country, Ignatieff's key task was to reassure and build inroads into the party, not to go off on controversial verbal tangents that made him appear an inexperienced rookie unfamiliar with domestic sensibilities.

Dion and Rae for the most part stood back and allowed Ignatieff to self-destruct, instead directing most of their invective toward Stephen Harper.

The two men philosophically are solidly on the left of the party, more interested in social than economic policy, although Dion has made more of a point than Rae of the absolute need for Canada to keep its fiscal house in order.

Both have a fair following in, and an excellent understanding of, the province Liberals always worry about most -- Quebec. (Lack of Quebec delegates support is a reason why many view Gerard Kennedy as a total long shot next week.)

Oddly, Dion has been criticized for his weak English. But personally, I've never found his second language wanting.

Rae is said to be the candidate privately favoured by Jean Chretien, while Dion hasn't any big-name party veterans champion his candidacy. Maybe not a bad thing.

Dion is in fact as much a Liberal outsider as Rae, Ontario's former New Democratic Party premier. Dion entered politics in 1996 and Paul Martin was apparently prepared a few years ago to send him packing, as ambassador to Spain.

Dion, an author and academic, is 51, born in Quebec City. Rae, trained as a lawyer, is 58, born in Ottawa. The two are well pedigreed, with Rae's dad, Saul, having had a distinguished career as a diplomat and Dion's father -- interestingly, a one-time separatist -- being a highly respected figure in Quebec academia.

Rae and Dion are eminently qualified for the job but probably wouldn't have got anywhere near the big prize had someone like former New Brunswick Liberal premier Frank McKenna opted to run.

The pertinent point to ponder is, no matter who prevails, he will preserve the Liberals as a party of the centre-left.

And this is a positive in that it inevitably will present Canadians with a clear choice between the right-of-centre Harperites and Liberals who will focus more on environmental concerns, post-secondary education financing, day-care funding and keeping a safe distance from U.S. military ventures.

The most intriguing aspect of this soon-to-conclude leadership race? From the start, this contest was golden boy-frontrunner Michael Ignatieff's to lose. When all voting is complete and ballots are counted on Dec. 2, party members will be shaking their heads at what an excellent job Iggy did of achieving just that.